Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF)

XXX SURNAME XXX, XXX NAME XXX

doi:https://doi.org/10.12686/a15

Although earthquakes are not predictable, their occurrence is strongly clustered in space and time. Based on the clustering behavior observed in past earthquake sequences, statistical models can be used to calculate time-varying probabilities of earthquakes occurring in a specified space-time-magnitude domain. On this site, such earthquake forecasts will be provided in near-real time for the entire Europe. This Europe-wide earthquake forecast does not aim to overrule local forecasts that may be available in individual countries. However, since there is a lack of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems in most countries in Europe, the European forecast can provide useful insight into the probability of future earthquakes that can aid the decision-making processes of various societal stakeholders.

The model is based on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988) and uses the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM, Danciu et al., 2021) as an input. A preliminary model is described by Han et al., 2024, and was developed in line with the expert recommendations of Mizrahi, Dallo et al., 2024, and following the procedures of Mizrahi, Nandan et al., 2024.

This service is currently in progress as part of WP3 within the Geo-INQUIRE project.

An Operational Earthquake ForecastingModel for Europe: Sequence-Specific Updating
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 27th, 2023
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, Irina Dallo, Stefan Wiemer

Resources

References

Han, M., Mizrahi, L., and Wiemer, S.: Towards a Harmonized Operational Earthquake Forecasting Model for Europe, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153, 2024.
Mizrahi, L., Dallo, I., van der Elst, N. J., Christophersen, A., Spassiani, I., Werner, M. J., et al. (2024). Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions. Reviews of Geophysics, 62, e2023RG000823. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023RG000823
Leila Mizrahi, Shyam Nandan, Banu Mena Cabrera, Stefan Wiemer; suiETAS: Developing and Testing ETAS‐Based Earthquake Forecasting Models for Switzerland. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2024; doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120240007
Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. Journal of the American Statistical association, 83(401), 9-27.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C. G., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., and Bard, P.-Y.: The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model-ESHM20: Model Overview, EFEHR Technical Report, 1, publisher: ETH Zurich, 2021.